← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 57 | 28-27-2 | 50.9% | 50.8% | 47.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 35.3% | -6.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 47.7% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 54.9% | +2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 47.0% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.4% | +6.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Atmos Armor Type-Ares | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |